American aircraft manufacturer Boeing has forecast Northeast Asian air traffic growth to surpass regional economic growth across the next two decades.
This analysis forms part of the company’s commercial market outlook (CMO) which tracks the evolution of market trends over a 20-year period.
The manufacturer predicted a 5.9% annual passenger traffic increase which is set to outpace Northeast Asia’s collective economic growth rate of 1.2%.
Dave Schulte, Boeing, commercial marketing managing director for Asia Pacific highlighted the expected increase in aircraft deliveries due to passenger numbers rising.
Schulte said: “As international traffic recovers, Northeast Asia will continue to serve growing markets throughout Asia Pacific, as well as trans-Pacific routes to North America.”
“We anticipate continued strong twin-aisle demand to serve both short-haul and long-haul routes. Growing single-aisle deliveries will support an expected expansion of low-cost carriers (LCCs) in the region.”
According to Boeing, the Northeast Asian market is set to renovate its fleet through the delivery of 1,350 aircraft by 2042. This will oversee the region’s single-aisle fleet almost doubling from 500 to 920 aircraft.
The 1,350 aircraft supplied include 790 single-aisle planes, 520 widebody jets, and 40 freighters.
Nicholas Wyatt, head of research & analysis, travel & tourism at GlobalData, emphasised the tourism trends impacted due to air traffic growth across this region.
Wyatt said: “As a region, Asia as a whole continues to grow in significance as far as tourism is concerned, both as a destination and as a source market. North-East Asia, most notably South Korea and Japan, is no exception. Consequently, our projections show that by 2027, both international arrivals and departures by air will comfortably exceed pre-pandemic levels for Japan and South Korea.
“Intra-regional travel is a key feature in these countries and this is helping LCCs to grow their share of the market as short-haul flights are where that operating model works. This should spur single-aisle deliveries. This, coupled with these source markets becoming increasingly adventurous, will also catalyse growth in long-haul flights that necessitate larger, wide-body aircraft.
The growth of low-cost carriers (LCC) continues to drive down fares and make travel more accessible, with 36% of the global single-aisle fleet now operated by LCCs.
Alongside this, air traffic numbers for intra-Asia and international flights are set to climb, which will lead to LCC market share reaching up to 25%, with capacity levels more than doubling.
