China could more than double its commercial aircraft fleet in the next two decades to meet a significant growth in Air traffic according to a new market outlook report released by Boeing.
The manufacturer’s 2024 Commercial Market Outlook predicted a 4.1% annual growth for the country’s fleet up to 2043 and said air travel in China would become the world’s largest traffic flow.
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As with the global trend, the country is expected to see the most growth in the single aisle aircraft market, with 6,720 deliveries predicted by 2043, though its widebody fleet is expected to become the largest in the world with 1,575 deliveries in the same period.
Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial marketing, said: “China’s commercial aviation market for passengers and cargo continues to expand, driven by economic growth and airlines building their in-country networks.”
The report continues the positive predictions made during Boeing’s 2023 CMO, when the company said that China would account for 20% of the global aircraft demand by 2042, and adds another 300 aircraft on to its predicted demand for the country for a total of 8,830 by 2043.
The strong predictions are largely informed by Boeing’s expectation that the country’s annual passenger traffic growth will rise significantly ahead of the global average of 4.7% at 5.9%, and far ahead of the 3% growth predicted for the wider Northeast Asia region.
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By GlobalDataIn the air cargo industry Boeing’s CMO made similar predictions for China, with 170 freighters expected to be ordered in the country by 2043, nearly tripling its cargo aircraft fleet as its e-commerce market remains dominant.
While the predictions will inform Boeing’s strategy in the region for years to come, the manufacturer will likely struggle to capitalise on the predicted demand as local carriers in China turn to its domestically produced aircraft the C919 to grow their fleets.
Manufactured by COMAC, the aircraft began its first commercial services in May 2023 and has since seen hundreds of orders come in from Chinese airlines, including Air China and China Eastern, and is working on securing certification from the EU to increase its potential customer base.
