China and India will be two of the biggest growth regions for the aviation industry according to Airbus’ latest 20-year global market forecast, which upped the manufacturer’s aircraft delivery expectations by 4%.
The French company said the solid post-pandemic recovery shown by the industry in 2023 had led it to expect more growth over the next two decades than previously, with 42,430 deliveries forecast by 2043.
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Airbus also predicted that aviation’s “centre of gravity” would continue to shift towards Asia as India, China, and the Middle East show some of the quickest growth in passenger traffic of all regions.
Speaking on the call revealing the forecast numbers, Joost Van Der Heijden, Airbus’s head of marketing, said: “Indian carriers are expanding their international and their widebody operations that had historically been served by foreign carriers.”
In addition to Asian growth, Airbus said it also expected the global commercial aircraft fleet to double over the next twenty years, with orders largely driven by demand for 33,510 new single-aisle aircraft, including 14,810 replacement planes and 18,700 new vehicles.
Airbus’s predictions will largely be no surprise to those who have been paying attention to aviation trends in recent years, with signs of India’s growing air travel demand shown last year when the country recorded record numbers of traffic.
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By GlobalDataAirbus has already benefited from the country’s growth after domestic carrier IndiGo placed the largest single commercial aircraft order in history last year, with an order of 500 A320 planes.
While commercial aviation is the focus of the company’s forecast, Airbus’s latest outlook also predicted significant growth for the cargo sector and highlighted an expected 3.1% rise in global cargo traffic, largely driven by the rapid increase in express traffic.
Overall, the company said the industry will likely see 2,470 new freighters by 2043, with the majority, 62%, of new cargo planes being converted passenger aircraft.
While Airbus’s predictions of growth for the aviation industry will be positive news for many, the expected aircraft demand could also spell trouble for a manufacturing sector hit by increasing supply chain issues and quality control concerns in 2024.
Though the majority of criticism has been directed at Boeing, which continues to see increased oversight by US regulators concerned about the safety of its production lines, Airbus has also struggled and recently saw its shares drop after an updated 2024 outlook.
The company told investors that part supply shortages and issues with engine deliveries had led it to drop its delivery expectations for the year from 800 planes to 770 and adjust its predicted annual profits down from €7bn to €5.5bn in response.
