The aerospace and defense industry continues to be a hotbed of patent innovation. Activity is driven by developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, and the growing importance of technologies such as drones, satellite technology, and big data. In the last three years alone, there have been over 84,000 patents filed and granted in the aerospace and defense industry, according to GlobalData’s report on Artificial intelligence in defense: AI in trajectory prediction. Buy the report here.
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However, not all innovations are equal and nor do they follow a constant upward trend. Instead, their evolution takes the form of an S-shaped curve that reflects their typical lifecycle from early emergence to accelerating adoption, before finally stabilizing and reaching maturity.
Identifying where a particular innovation is on this journey, especially those that are in the emerging and accelerating stages, is essential for understanding their current level of adoption and the likely future trajectory and impact they will have.
110 innovations will shape the aerospace and defense industry
According to GlobalData’s Technology Foresights, which plots the S-curve for the aerospace and defense industry using innovation intensity models built on over 260,000 patents, there are 110 innovation areas that will shape the future of the industry.
Within the emerging innovation stage, precision imaging drones, satellite image smoothing and AI in trajectory prediction are disruptive technologies that are in the early stages of application and should be tracked closely. Autonomous flight trajectory generation, autonomous mobile bots and aerial imaging are some of the accelerating innovation areas, where adoption has been steadily.
Innovation S-curve for artificial intelligence in the aerospace and defense industry
AI in trajectory prediction is a key innovation area in artificial intelligence
AI in trajectory prediction refers to the application of artificial intelligence techniques, specifically neural networks, to predict the future trajectory or path of an object or vehicle in a given environment. This involves analyzing sensor data, such as current state information and environmental factors, and using neural network models to generate predictions of the object's future states or actions based on historical data.
GlobalData’s analysis also uncovers the companies at the forefront of each innovation area and assesses the potential reach and impact of their patenting activity across different applications and geographies. According to GlobalData, there are 40+ companies, spanning technology vendors, established aerospace and defense companies, and up-and-coming start-ups engaged in the development and application of AI in trajectory prediction.
Key players in AI in trajectory prediction – a disruptive innovation in the aerospace and defense industry
‘Application diversity’ measures the number of applications identified for each patent. It broadly splits companies into either ‘niche’ or ‘diversified’ innovators.
‘Geographic reach’ refers to the number of countries each patent is registered in. It reflects the breadth of geographic application intended, ranging from ‘global’ to ‘local’.
Patent volumes related to AI for trajectory prediction
| Company | Total patents (2021 - 2023) | Premium intelligence on the world's largest companies |
| State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance | 8 | Unlock Company Profile |
| Thales | 5 | Unlock Company Profile |
| Wing Aviation | 11 | Unlock Company Profile |
| Baidu | 5 | Unlock Company Profile |
| General Electric | 4 | Unlock Company Profile |
| NOV | 5 | Unlock Company Profile |
| General Motors | 6 | Unlock Company Profile |
| Amazon.com | 15 | Unlock Company Profile |
| LG | 7 | Unlock Company Profile |
| Intel | 7 | Unlock Company Profile |
| Aurora Innovation | 5 | Unlock Company Profile |
| Chongqing Jinkang New Energy Vehicle | 5 | Unlock Company Profile |
| Aurora Operations | 8 | Unlock Company Profile |
| Uatc | 8 | Unlock Company Profile |
Source: GlobalData Patent Analytics
Boeing is one of the leading patent filers in the application of AI for trajectory prediction. Some of the patents filed by the aircraft manufacturer are related to methods and systems of using machine learning algorithms and deep neural network to forecast the plane’s flight path and provide more adaptive in-flight management in response to unforeseen conditions. The machine learning method is based on obtaining and analyzing the real-time aircraft states from the onboard sensor data and retrieving the recorded surveillance data corresponding to a particular aircraft type and route.
Some other key patent filers in this space include Aptiv, Amazon.com, and Wing Aviation.
In terms of application diversity, Aptiv, Amazon.com and Seoul Robotics are some of the leading patent filers. By means of geographic reach, some of the leading patent filers include Aurora Operations, Aptiv and Amazon.com.
To further understand the key themes and technologies disrupting the aerospace and defense industry, access GlobalData’s latest thematic research report on Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Defense.
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GlobalData, the leading provider of industry intelligence, provided the underlying data, research, and analysis used to produce this article.
GlobalData’s Patent Analytics tracks patent filings and grants from official offices around the world. Textual analysis and official patent classifications are used to group patents into key thematic areas and link them to specific companies across the world’s largest industries.
